Friday, October 22. 2004
A Partial Explanation
For how people can actually support Bush...they tend to be deluding themselves. A report interestingly entitled The Separate Realities of Bush and Kerry Supporters from the Program on International Policy Attitudes concludes that Bush supporters have been consistenly misled on the truth. Read the report, it's very enlightening.
The analysis of the report concludes:
The Key findings:
The analysis of the report concludes:
So why is this the case? And, more specifically, why are Bush supporters holding so clinging so tightly to beliefs that have been so visibly refuted? As discussed, one key possible explanation for why Bush supporters continue to believe that Iraq had WMD or a major WMD program, and supported al Qaeda is that they continue to hear the Bush administration confirming these beliefs.
Another possible explanation is that Bush supporters cling to these beliefs because they are necessary for their support for the decision to go to war with Iraq. Asked whether the US should have gone to war with Iraq if US intelligence had concluded that Iraq was not making WMD or providing support to al Qaeda, 58% of Bush supporters said the US should not have, and 61% assume that in this case the president would not have. To support the president and to accept that he took the US to war based on mistaken assumptions is difficult to bear, especially in light of the continuing costs in terms of lives and money. Apparently, to avoid this cognitive dissonance, Bush supporters suppress awareness of unsettling information.
The Key findings:
1. Iraq, WMD, and al Qaeda A large majority of Bush supporters believe that before the war Iraq had weapons of mass destruction or a major program for building them. A substantial majority of Bush supporters assume that most experts believe Iraq had WMD and that this was the conclusion of the recently released report by Charles Duelfer. A large majority of Bush supporters believes that Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda and that clear evidence of this support has been found. A large majority believes that most experts also have this view, and a substantial majority believe that this was the conclusion of the 9/11 Commission. Large majorities of Kerry supporters believe the opposite on all these points.
2. What the Bush Administration is Saying About Pre-War Iraq Large majorities of Bush and Kerry supporters agree that the Bush administration is saying that Iraq had WMD and was providing substantial support to al Qaeda. In regard to WMD, these majorities are growing.
3. The Decision to Go to War Majorities of Bush supporters and Kerry supporters agree that if Iraq did not have WMD or was not providing support to al Qaeda, the US should not have gone to war with Iraq.
4. World Public Opinion on the Iraq War and George Bush's Reelection Only three in ten Bush supporters believe that the majority of people in the world oppose the US going to war with Iraq, while an overwhelming majority of Kerry supporters have this view. A majority of Bush supporters assume that the majority of people in the world would like to see Bush reelected, while a large majority of Kerry supporters believe the opposite. Bush supporters also lean toward overestimating support in Islamic countries for US-led efforts to fight terrorism, while Kerry supporters do not.
5. Candidates' Foreign Policy Positions Majorities of Bush supporters misperceive his positions on a range of foreign policy issues. In particular they assume he supports multilateral approaches and addressing global warming when he has taken strong contrary positions on issues such as the International Criminal court and the Kyoto Agreement. A majority of Kerry supporters have accurate perceptions of Kerry positions on the same issues.
Also, it seems that Kerry supporters are supporting Kerry because of his stand on issues, while Bush supporters are supporting him despite his stand on issues. Very scary:
Issue Bush's position Bush supporters that correctly perceive Bush (%) Kerry's position Kerry supporters that correctly perceive Kerry (%)
Labor and environmental standards in trade agreements (Oct.) Opposes 13 Supports 81
Participation in land mines treaty Opposes 20 Supports 79
Participation in a treaty that bans the testing of nuclear weapons Opposes 24 Supports 77
Participation in the International Criminal Court (Oct.) Opposes 38 Supports* 65
Participation in Kyoto agreement on global warming Opposes 39 Supports* 74
Building a missile defense system (Oct.) Build now 47 Research only 68
% Defense spending Expand 57 Keep same 43
Who should take the lead in Iraq on writing a new Constitution and building a democratic government US 70 UN 80
* Supports in principle but wants to negotiate terms for US involvement
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