JaBbA's Hut

A poll by the American Research Group of "likely voters" shows Kerry leading Bush in Ohio by 6 points - 50% to 44%. This is with Nader in the race.

Remember, no Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio.

In other swing states, the race is close, but Kerry is still showing well - and this in the face of some REALLY nasty attack ads from the Bush campaign -- ads that distort the truth badly.

Florida: tied
West Va: Kerry by 3%
New Hampshire: tied (Kerry has closed the gap from May)
Oregon: tied (Kerry by 2% without Nader)
Iowa: tied
NMex: tied
Wis: tied (Kerry by 3% without Nader)

An interesting page: The Electoral Votes Calculator. It's pre-loaded with the results of the 2000 election, but with the Electoral Vote totals for the 2004 election. Note that Bush won 271 electoral votes in 2000 (270 needed to win) but his states would give him 278 because of the redistricting from the census.

So Kerry needs to hang on to all the "blue" states and add 10 more electoral votes. Florida has 27, Ohio has 20, Indiana has 11, New Hampshire has 4, West Va has 3, South Dakota has 3 (They have 2 Dem Senators, and it looks like Daschle is going to retain his Senate Seat).

States that are considered battlegrounds that Kerry needs to hang on to: Oregon (7), Iowa (7), Wisconsin (10).

From a pure numbers standpoint, Bush has 68 Electoral votes at risk, while Kerry has just 24. But the biggest prize, Florida, will be tough, considering that Jeb is still Governor and they are still up to their dirty tricks with the registration rolls down there. So it still looks like Ohio is going to be the critical factor.